Four November Elections Could Shake Up Latin American Politics
In the leadup to Nov. 7’s sham election in Nicaragua, incumbent President Daniel Ortega’s crackdown on the opposition and imprisonment of his most viable challengers garnered a good deal of attention. But the Nicaraguan election was only the first in a series of crucial political contests taking place in the region this month. By the time December begins, the path ahead for nearly half a dozen Latin American countries may well have been redrawn.
Beyond Nicaragua’s widely criticized parody of democracy, the continent will see pivotal presidential elections in Chile and Honduras, the winners of which could take these countries in significantly different directions. At the same time, key local and legislative polls are scheduled in Argentina and Venezuela, with the potential for a very consequential power shift in the former.
First, to Chile, where the race to succeed the just-impeached President Sebastian Pinera has taken an unexpected turn. In July, the country’s main left- and right-leaning coalitions held primary elections, and the results alleviated fears that the coronavirus pandemic, coming on the heels of massive social protests in 2019, would lead voters to support candidates on the far left or far right. Instead, the left rejected the Communist Party’s radical candidate, Daniel Jadue, in favor of the fairly far-left but less radical Gabriel Boric, a 35-year-old former student activist from the leftist Broad Front coalition. On the right, voters chose Sebastian Sichel, a 43-year-old candidate who until just a few years ago belonged to the center-left Citizens party.
The country was set for a head-to-head battle between the center-left and the center-right in the Nov. 21 general election—but four months is a long time, especially in the midst of a pandemic. Now, the race looks quite different. Sichel’s campaign crumbled after alleged irregularities during his 2009 campaign for Congress came to light. A figure from the far right, Jose Antonio Kast, has since emerged to capture voters’ interest, and he is rising fast in the polls.
Kast, who is also known as JAK, is frequently compared to other well-known, disruptive right-wingers like Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and former U.S. President Donald Trump. His campaign platform highlights Chile’s Christian European heritage, without mentioning its Indigenous population and culture, and criticizes the pursuit of equality as a threat to freedom. Kast also advocates freer labor markets and has vowed to focus on law and order, promising to build more prisons.
Recent polls put Kast in first place with 26.5 percent of the vote, ahead of Boric’s 25 percent. With no candidate polling anywhere near the 50 percent needed to win outright, the election seems likely to head to a second round, in which current polls show Boric beating Kast with a 43 to 37 percent margin. Kast’s newfound momentum could change this result—but whatever the outcome, the next presidency looks set to enact significant changes, with a decided shift away from the center, either toward more taxes, more social programs and more government intervention in the economy, or the precise opposite.
Then there’s Honduras, where on Nov. 28, voters will elect the successor to President Juan Orlando Hernandez, along with 128 members of the National Congress. Hernandez stands at the center of deepening corruption, money laundering and drug trafficking controversies. Over his eight years in office, critics say, he has turned Honduras into a narco-state. In March, U.S. courts sentenced Hernandez’s brother, Tony, to life in prison for drug trafficking in a case that also alleged President Orlando’s direct involvement in smuggling cocaine into the United States. The outgoing president denies all the accusations.
After some 18 months of pandemic-driven crises, the next few weeks will be an opportunity to further gauge the electoral impact of this most unusual period in world history.
The ruling National Party has nominated Nasry Asfura, the popular conservative mayor of the capital, Tegucigalpa, to succeed Orlando. But Asfura has also faced corruption allegations, including an indictment by local authorities accusing him of embezzling public funds and money laundering, which was later thrown out of court.
To boost its chances against Asfura, Honduras’ opposition decided in mid-October to unite behind leftist candidate Xiomara Castro, wife of former President Manuel Zelaya, who in 2009 was memorably deposed in a middle-of-the-night coup that saw him removed from bed—and from power—while still in his pajamas. Castro has managed to bring her Liberty and Refoundation Party together with the National Opposition Union, which had earlier backed another candidate, Salvador Nasralla.
The united opposition now has a significant lead over the ruling party’s Asfura. A recent poll by the Center for Democratic Studies, a citizen research initiative, put Castro in first place with 38 percent of the vote, against Asfura’s 21 percent. Just weeks earlier, a CID-Gallup poll had Asfura winning 21 percent, and Castro and Nasralla each at 18 percent—confirming just how crucial it was for the opposition to bridge its differences.
In addition to these potentially transformative presidential elections, several ruling parties are also facing the prospect of losing ground in upcoming legislative polls. That’s especially true in Argentina, where members of the leftist Peronista movement have been battling each other in addition to their rivals.
In the perennial drama of politics in Buenos Aires, President Alberto Fernandez and Vice President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner have turned on one another in the aftermath of the country’s Sept. 12 primary elections. Because Argentina has open primaries rather than party-specific votes, the September outcome was seen as a reliable preview of the legislative elections taking place on Nov. 14. It signaled disaster for the Peronistas, who lost in 18 of 24 provinces, putting them on track to lose their majority in the Senate, and potentially even in the Chamber of Deputies, the legislature’s lower house. A loss of that magnitude would set the stage for a completely different political atmosphere during the second half of the current presidential term.
In addition to trying to protect their personal standing by blaming each other for the looming disaster, the Fernandez-Fernandez duo has tried to bolster their party’s prospects by announcing massive spending programs. Whether or not that has helped will soon become apparent.
The second of this month’s major legislative elections will take place in Venezuela on Nov. 21. After boycotting multiple elections over the years, the opposition has decided to participate in this one. As uneven as the playing field will no doubt be under President Nicolas Maduro’s dictatorship, the races will be competitive and the opposition will have a chance to make some inroads. Still, Maduro’s opponents remain divided and weakened, and not all factions are fielding candidates.
The next few weeks will be a barometer for political sentiment in Latin America. After some 18 months of pandemic-driven crises, it will be an opportunity to further gauge the electoral impact of this most unusual period in world history.
Frida Ghitis is a world affairs columnist. A former CNN producer and correspondent, she is a regular contributor to CNN and The Washington Post. Her WPR column appears every Thursday. Follow her on Twitter at @fridaghitis.